“It doesn’t make sense”

By Peter Karvon – November 2016

From the above Auction clearance table (Auctions are the true market indicator), it seems that we have some interesting contradictions that must have some basis for explanation – however given the clearance rates and current real estate talk, it makes no sense!

I like to keep in touch with the Sydney residential market (as it’s where I live) and information is everywhere. Some you can believe and other, like most propaganda, is driven by personal interest.

Above are some of the total sales and monetary volumes for the last three months (sorry I missed a couple) that show averages as calculated from the Australian Property News information provided by Domain. I’ve compared them to last year’s figures and found that we have higher clearance rates but a lower volume of sales. The interesting thing is that the averages are about 20% less than last year.

Now that does not make sense – I’ve been in property a long time and I know that if volume is down, and less people are selling, prices should be on the increase.

Could it be that properties are recovering from a down turn? If so, it was only for a relatively short time and seems to have dropped the averages by more than 20%.

Changes in average prices like changes in median prices reflect movement in the market. What type of movement are we currently experiencing? Is the market bouncing right now? Does that mean we have reached the ceiling and are trying to break through or have we reached the end of our rope?

Anyone want to comment?